USA Card harshness

Card Harshness

United States

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In United States's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than United States — a card about every 6 fouls for opponents, versus about every 7 fouls for United States.

United States 1 card / 7 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 6 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

56 fouls, 8 cards

Expected cards

56 fouls × 0.103 = 5.785

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.074, 0.257]

Source matches

1489370
1489391
1539012
1562586
1570715

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489370	Paraguay	13	1
1489391	Australia	12	3
1539012	Türkiye	13	1
1562586	Bosnia & Herzegovina	7	1
1570715	Belgium	11	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 5.7848,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.6818,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1033
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0742,
      0.2574
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1429
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1618,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1033
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489370",
      "opponent": "Paraguay"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1489391",
      "opponent": "Australia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1539012",
      "opponent": "Türkiye"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1562586",
      "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1570715",
      "opponent": "Belgium"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 6.1818
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 9.6818,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 7
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489370",
    "1489391",
    "1539012",
    "1562586",
    "1570715"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1033,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 8,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1429,
    "fouls": 56,
    "foulsPerCard": 7
  },
  "teamCode": "USA",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON