Switzerland Card harshness

Card Harshness

Switzerland

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Switzerland's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than Switzerland — a card about every 6 fouls for opponents, versus about every 10 fouls for Switzerland.

Switzerland 1 card / 10 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 6 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Switzerland's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

87 fouls, 9 cards

Expected cards

87 fouls × 0.135 = 11.702

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.055, 0.185]

Source matches

1489373
1489408
1539005
1567312
1576805
1582681

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489373	Qatar	11	1
1489408	Canada	19	1
1539005	Bosnia & Herzegovina	7	1
1567312	Algeria	10	0
1576805	Colombia	22	3
1582681	Argentina	18	3

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 11.7015,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.4359,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1345
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0554,
      0.185
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1034
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1556,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1345
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489373",
      "opponent": "Qatar"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 19,
      "matchId": "1489408",
      "opponent": "Canada"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1539005",
      "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1567312",
      "opponent": "Algeria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 22,
      "matchId": "1576805",
      "opponent": "Colombia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 18,
      "matchId": "1582681",
      "opponent": "Argentina"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 6.4286
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 7.4359,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 9.6667
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489373",
    "1489408",
    "1539005",
    "1567312",
    "1576805",
    "1582681"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1345,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 9,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1034,
    "fouls": 87,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.6667
  },
  "teamCode": "Switzerland",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON