Spain Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Spain

Limited

What we see

Spain is shown a card about every 14 fouls. The teams Spain faced were carded about every 8 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Spain, they were carded about every 5 fouls. That is less than their own usual rate, so the cards were shifted toward Spain.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

68 fouls, 5 cards

Expected cards

68 fouls × 0.122 = 8.282

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.032, 0.161]

Source matches

1489380
1489397
1489417
1567311
1576756
1581821

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489380	Cape Verde Islands	10	1
1489397	Saudi Arabia	10	0
1489417	Uruguay	14	1
1567311	Austria	8	0
1576756	Portugal	13	1
1581821	Belgium	13	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.2824,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.2083,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1218
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0318,
      0.1609
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0735
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": true,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.2105,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1218
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489380",
      "opponent": "Cape Verde Islands"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489397",
      "opponent": "Saudi Arabia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489417",
      "opponent": "Uruguay"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1567311",
      "opponent": "Austria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1576756",
      "opponent": "Portugal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1581821",
      "opponent": "Belgium"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 4.75
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.2083,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 13.6
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489380",
    "1489397",
    "1489417",
    "1567311",
    "1576756",
    "1581821"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1218,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 5,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0735,
    "fouls": 68,
    "foulsPerCard": 13.6
  },
  "teamCode": "Spain",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON