Spain Card harshness

Card Harshness

Spain

Still earlyMirror comparison — same referee, same games

Early sign: in Spain's matches the referees booked their opponents far more readily than Spain — a card about every 5 fouls for opponents, versus about every 17 fouls for Spain.

Spain 1 card / 17 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 5 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

Those same opponents were carded closer to their usual rate elsewhere, so in these games the cards really were shifted onto one side.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

101 fouls, 6 cards

Expected cards

101 fouls × 0.103 = 10.443

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.028, 0.124]

Source matches

1489380
1489397
1489417
1567311
1576756
1581821
1585131
1591866

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489380	Cape Verde Islands	10	1
1489397	Saudi Arabia	10	0
1489417	Uruguay	14	1
1567311	Austria	8	0
1576756	Portugal	13	1
1581821	Belgium	13	2
1585131	France	12	1
1591866	Argentina	21	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 10.4434,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.6757,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1034
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0275,
      0.1236
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0594
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": true,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.2211,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1034
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489380",
      "opponent": "Cape Verde Islands"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489397",
      "opponent": "Saudi Arabia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489417",
      "opponent": "Uruguay"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1567311",
      "opponent": "Austria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1576756",
      "opponent": "Portugal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1581821",
      "opponent": "Belgium"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1585131",
      "opponent": "France"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 21,
      "matchId": "1591866",
      "opponent": "Argentina"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 4.5238
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 9.6757,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 16.8333
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489380",
    "1489397",
    "1489417",
    "1567311",
    "1576756",
    "1581821",
    "1585131",
    "1591866"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1034,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 6,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0594,
    "fouls": 101,
    "foulsPerCard": 16.8333
  },
  "teamCode": "Spain",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON