Portugal Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Portugal

Moderate

What we see

Portugal is shown a card about every 6 fouls. The teams Portugal faced were carded about every 10 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Portugal, they were carded about every 10 fouls. That is close to their own usual rate, so the gap is mostly on Portugal's side.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

44 fouls, 7 cards

Expected cards

44 fouls × 0.1 = 4.4

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.079, 0.294]

Source matches

1489404
1489419
1539003
1567309
1576756

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489404	Uzbekistan	14	1
1489419	Colombia	6	0
1539003	Congo DR	9	3
1567309	Croatia	6	1
1576756	Spain	9	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 4.4,
    "foulsPerCard": 10,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0793,
      0.2937
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1591
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0968,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489404",
      "opponent": "Uzbekistan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1489419",
      "opponent": "Colombia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1539003",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1567309",
      "opponent": "Croatia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1576756",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 10.3333
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 10,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.2857
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489404",
    "1489419",
    "1539003",
    "1567309",
    "1576756"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 7,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1591,
    "fouls": 44,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.2857
  },
  "teamCode": "Portugal",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON