Portugal Card harshness

Card Harshness

Portugal

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Portugal's matches the referees booked Portugal more readily than their opponents — a card about every 6 fouls for Portugal, versus about every 10 fouls for the opponents.

Portugal 1 card / 6 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 10 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Portugal's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Strength of schedule. The teams Portugal faced were carded less often than the tournament average.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

44 fouls, 7 cards

Expected cards

44 fouls × 0.091 = 3.982

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.079, 0.294]

Source matches

1489404
1489419
1539003
1567309
1576756

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489404	Uzbekistan	14	1
1489419	Colombia	6	0
1539003	Congo DR	9	3
1567309	Croatia	6	1
1576756	Spain	9	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 3.982,
    "foulsPerCard": 11.0455,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0905
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0793,
      0.2937
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1591
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0968,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0905
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489404",
      "opponent": "Uzbekistan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1489419",
      "opponent": "Colombia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1539003",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1567309",
      "opponent": "Croatia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1576756",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 10.3333
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 11.0455,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.2857
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489404",
    "1489419",
    "1539003",
    "1567309",
    "1576756"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": "opponents_below_average",
    "material": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0905,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 7,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1591,
    "fouls": 44,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.2857
  },
  "teamCode": "Portugal",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON