Paraguay Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Paraguay

Strong

What we see

Paraguay is shown a card about every 7 fouls. The teams Paraguay faced were carded about every 13 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Paraguay, they were carded about every 8 fouls.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

66 fouls, 10 cards

Expected cards

66 fouls × 0.077 = 5.102

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.084, 0.257]

Source matches

1489370
1489411
1539006
1565176
1569870

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489370	United States	17	5
1489411	Australia	9	1
1539006	Türkiye	15	2
1565176	Germany	12	2
1569870	France	13	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 5.1018,
    "foulsPerCard": 12.9286,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0773
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "strong",
    "interval": [
      0.0844,
      0.2569
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1515
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.129,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0773
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 5
      },
      "cards": 5,
      "fouls": 17,
      "matchId": "1489370",
      "opponent": "USA"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489411",
      "opponent": "Australia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1539006",
      "opponent": "Türkiye"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1565176",
      "opponent": "Germany"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "France"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "strong",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 7.75
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 12.9286,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.6
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489370",
    "1489411",
    "1539006",
    "1565176",
    "1569870"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": "opponents_below_average",
    "material": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0773,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 10,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1515,
    "fouls": 66,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.6
  },
  "teamCode": "Paraguay",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON