Paraguay Card harshness

Card Harshness

Paraguay

Clear patternMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Paraguay's matches the referees booked Paraguay more readily than their opponents — a card about every 7 fouls for Paraguay, versus about every 8 fouls for the opponents.

Paraguay 1 card / 7 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 8 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Strength of schedule. The teams Paraguay faced were carded less often than the tournament average.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

66 fouls, 10 cards

Expected cards

66 fouls × 0.078 = 5.128

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.084, 0.257]

Source matches

1489370
1489411
1539006
1565176
1569870

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489370	United States	17	5
1489411	Australia	9	1
1539006	Türkiye	15	2
1565176	Germany	12	2
1569870	France	13	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 5.1282,
    "foulsPerCard": 12.875,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0777
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "strong",
    "interval": [
      0.0844,
      0.2569
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1515
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.129,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0777
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 5
      },
      "cards": 5,
      "fouls": 17,
      "matchId": "1489370",
      "opponent": "USA"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489411",
      "opponent": "Australia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1539006",
      "opponent": "Türkiye"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1565176",
      "opponent": "Germany"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "France"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "strong",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 7.75
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 12.875,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.6
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489370",
    "1489411",
    "1539006",
    "1565176",
    "1569870"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": "opponents_below_average",
    "material": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0777,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 10,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1515,
    "fouls": 66,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.6
  },
  "teamCode": "Paraguay",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON