Norway Card harshness

Card Harshness

Norway

Still earlyMirror comparison — same referee, same games

Early sign: in Norway's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than Norway — a card about every 16 fouls for opponents, versus about every 19 fouls for Norway.

Norway 1 card / 19 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 16 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

58 fouls, 3 cards

Expected cards

58 fouls × 0.124 = 7.169

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.018, 0.141]

Source matches

1489401
1489416
1539016
1564789
1568100
1581037

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489401	Senegal	13	0
1489416	France	9	1
1539016	Iraq	13	0
1564789	Ivory Coast	7	1
1568100	Brazil	6	0
1581037	England	10	1

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 7.1688,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.0938,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1236
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0177,
      0.1414
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0517
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0612,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1236
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489401",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489416",
      "opponent": "France"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1539016",
      "opponent": "Iraq"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1564789",
      "opponent": "Ivory Coast"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1568100",
      "opponent": "Brazil"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1581037",
      "opponent": "England"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 16.3333
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.0938,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 19.3333
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489401",
    "1489416",
    "1539016",
    "1564789",
    "1568100",
    "1581037"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1236,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 3,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0517,
    "fouls": 58,
    "foulsPerCard": 19.3333
  },
  "teamCode": "Norway",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON