Norway Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Norway

Limited

What we see

Norway is shown a card about every 24 fouls. The teams Norway faced were carded about every 8 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Norway, they were carded about every 14 fouls.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

48 fouls, 2 cards

Expected cards

48 fouls × 0.13 = 6.259

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.012, 0.14]

Source matches

1489401
1489416
1539016
1564789
1568100

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489401	Senegal	13	0
1489416	France	9	1
1539016	Iraq	13	0
1564789	Ivory Coast	7	1
1568100	Brazil	6	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 6.2592,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.6667,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1304
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0115,
      0.1398
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0417
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0732,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1304
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489401",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489416",
      "opponent": "France"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1539016",
      "opponent": "Iraq"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1564789",
      "opponent": "Ivory Coast"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 6,
      "matchId": "1568100",
      "opponent": "Brazil"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 13.6667
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 7.6667,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 24
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489401",
    "1489416",
    "1539016",
    "1564789",
    "1568100"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1304,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 2,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0417,
    "fouls": 48,
    "foulsPerCard": 24
  },
  "teamCode": "Norway",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON