Morocco Card harshness

Card Harshness

Morocco

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Morocco's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than Morocco — a card about every 10 fouls for opponents, versus about every 11 fouls for Morocco.

Morocco 1 card / 11 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 10 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Morocco's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

74 fouls, 7 cards

Expected cards

74 fouls × 0.12 = 8.843

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.047, 0.183]

Source matches

1489371
1489390
1489405
1562345
1567824
1578539

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489371	Brazil	14	0
1489390	Scotland	8	1
1489405	Haiti	10	0
1562345	Netherlands	15	1
1567824	Canada	14	4
1578539	France	13	1

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.843,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.3667,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1195
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0466,
      0.1826
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0946
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1031,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1195
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489371",
      "opponent": "Brazil"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1489390",
      "opponent": "Scotland"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489405",
      "opponent": "Haiti"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1562345",
      "opponent": "Netherlands"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 4,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1567824",
      "opponent": "Canada"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1578539",
      "opponent": "France"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 9.7
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.3667,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 10.5714
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489371",
    "1489390",
    "1489405",
    "1562345",
    "1567824",
    "1578539"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1195,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 7,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0946,
    "fouls": 74,
    "foulsPerCard": 10.5714
  },
  "teamCode": "Morocco",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON