Mexico Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Mexico

Limited

What we see

Mexico is shown a card about every 12 fouls. The teams Mexico faced were carded about every 11 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Mexico, they were carded about every 3 fouls. That is less than their own usual rate, so the cards were shifted toward Mexico.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

58 fouls, 5 cards

Expected cards

58 fouls × 0.09 = 5.237

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.037, 0.186]

Source matches

1489369
1489388
1539010
1567306
1570714

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489369	South Africa	12	2
1489388	South Korea	9	0
1539010	Czechia	13	1
1567306	Ecuador	10	0
1570714	England	14	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 5.2374,
    "foulsPerCard": 11.0714,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0903
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0374,
      0.1864
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0862
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": true,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.3125,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0903
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1489369",
      "opponent": "South Africa"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489388",
      "opponent": "South Korea"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1539010",
      "opponent": "Czechia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1567306",
      "opponent": "Ecuador"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1570714",
      "opponent": "England"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 3.2
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 11.0714,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 11.6
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489369",
    "1489388",
    "1539010",
    "1567306",
    "1570714"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": "opponents_below_average",
    "material": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0903,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 5,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0862,
    "fouls": 58,
    "foulsPerCard": 11.6
  },
  "teamCode": "Mexico",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON