France Card harshness

Card Harshness

France

Still earlyMirror comparison — same referee, same games

Early sign: in France's matches the referees booked France more readily than their opponents — a card about every 14 fouls for France, versus about every 20 fouls for the opponents.

France 1 card / 14 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 20 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

84 fouls, 6 cards

Expected cards

84 fouls × 0.108 = 9.055

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.033, 0.147]

Source matches

1489383
1489416
1539017
1565177
1569870
1578539
1585131
1591865

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489383	Senegal	5	0
1489416	Norway	11	1
1539017	Iraq	8	0
1565177	Sweden	14	0
1569870	Paraguay	11	3
1578539	Morocco	10	0
1585131	Spain	11	2
1591865	England	14	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 9.0552,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.2727,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1078
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0331,
      0.1472
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0714
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0513,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1078
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 5,
      "matchId": "1489383",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489416",
      "opponent": "Norway"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1539017",
      "opponent": "Iraq"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1565177",
      "opponent": "Sweden"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "Paraguay"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1578539",
      "opponent": "Morocco"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1585131",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1591865",
      "opponent": "England"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 19.5
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 9.2727,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 14
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489383",
    "1489416",
    "1539017",
    "1565177",
    "1569870",
    "1578539",
    "1585131",
    "1591865"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1078,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 6,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0714,
    "fouls": 84,
    "foulsPerCard": 14
  },
  "teamCode": "France",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON