France Card Harshness

Card Harshness

France

Limited

What we see

France is shown a card about every 15 fouls. The teams France faced were carded about every 8 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played France, they were carded about every 19 fouls.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

59 fouls, 4 cards

Expected cards

59 fouls × 0.123 = 7.251

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.027, 0.162]

Source matches

1489383
1489416
1539017
1565177
1569870
1578539

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489383	Senegal	5	0
1489416	Norway	11	1
1539017	Iraq	8	0
1565177	Sweden	14	0
1569870	Paraguay	11	3
1578539	Morocco	10	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 7.2511,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.1379,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1229
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0267,
      0.1618
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0678
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0517,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1229
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 5,
      "matchId": "1489383",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489416",
      "opponent": "Norway"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1539017",
      "opponent": "Iraq"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1565177",
      "opponent": "Sweden"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "Paraguay"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1578539",
      "opponent": "Morocco"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 19.3333
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.1379,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 14.75
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489383",
    "1489416",
    "1539017",
    "1565177",
    "1569870",
    "1578539"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1229,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 4,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0678,
    "fouls": 59,
    "foulsPerCard": 14.75
  },
  "teamCode": "France",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON