England Card Harshness

Card Harshness

England

Moderate

What we see

England is shown a card about every 7 fouls. The teams England faced were carded about every 9 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played England, they were carded about every 13 fouls. That is less than their own usual rate, so the cards were shifted toward England.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

54 fouls, 8 cards

Expected cards

54 fouls × 0.117 = 6.318

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.077, 0.266]

Source matches

1489384
1489402
1489422
1567307
1570714

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489384	Croatia	10	0
1489402	Ghana	14	1
1489422	Panama	13	1
1567307	Congo DR	10	1
1570714	Mexico	7	5

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 6.318,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.55,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.117
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.077,
      0.266
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1481
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": true,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0769,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.117
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489384",
      "opponent": "Croatia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489402",
      "opponent": "Ghana"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489422",
      "opponent": "Panama"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1567307",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 5,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1570714",
      "opponent": "Mexico"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 13
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.55,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.75
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489384",
    "1489402",
    "1489422",
    "1567307",
    "1570714"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.117,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 8,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1481,
    "fouls": 54,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.75
  },
  "teamCode": "England",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON