England Card harshness

Card Harshness

England

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In England's matches the referees booked England more readily than their opponents — a card about every 9 fouls for England, versus about every 12 fouls for the opponents.

England 1 card / 9 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 12 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on England's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

81 fouls, 9 cards

Expected cards

81 fouls × 0.106 = 8.578

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.06, 0.198]

Source matches

1489384
1489402
1489422
1567307
1570714
1581037
1586077
1591865

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489384	Croatia	10	0
1489402	Ghana	14	1
1489422	Panama	13	1
1567307	Congo DR	10	1
1570714	Mexico	7	5
1581037	Norway	8	0
1586077	Argentina	11	1
1591865	France	8	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.5779,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.439,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1059
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0596,
      0.1979
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1111
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.0855,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1059
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1489384",
      "opponent": "Croatia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1489402",
      "opponent": "Ghana"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489422",
      "opponent": "Panama"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1567307",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 5,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1570714",
      "opponent": "Mexico"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1581037",
      "opponent": "Norway"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1586077",
      "opponent": "Argentina"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1591865",
      "opponent": "France"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 11.7
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 9.439,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 9
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489384",
    "1489402",
    "1489422",
    "1567307",
    "1570714",
    "1581037",
    "1586077",
    "1591865"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1059,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 9,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1111,
    "fouls": 81,
    "foulsPerCard": 9
  },
  "teamCode": "England",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON