Egypt Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Egypt

Strong

What we see

Egypt is shown a card about every 5 fouls. The teams Egypt faced were carded about every 10 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Egypt, they were carded about every 9 fouls. That is close to their own usual rate, so the gap is mostly on Egypt's side.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

59 fouls, 12 cards

Expected cards

59 fouls × 0.096 = 5.635

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.12, 0.323]

Source matches

1489377
1489396
1489414
1565178
1576804

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489377	Belgium	15	2
1489396	New Zealand	8	1
1489414	Iran	11	3
1565178	Australia	14	2
1576804	Argentina	11	4

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 5.6345,
    "foulsPerCard": 10.4706,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0955
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "strong",
    "interval": [
      0.1204,
      0.3227
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.2034
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1143,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0955
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1489377",
      "opponent": "Belgium"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1489396",
      "opponent": "New Zealand"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489414",
      "opponent": "Iran"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1565178",
      "opponent": "Australia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 4,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1576804",
      "opponent": "Argentina"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "strong",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 8.75
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 10.4706,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 4.9167
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489377",
    "1489396",
    "1489414",
    "1565178",
    "1576804"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0955,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 12,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.2034,
    "fouls": 59,
    "foulsPerCard": 4.9167
  },
  "teamCode": "Egypt",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON