Egypt Card harshness

Card Harshness

Egypt

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Egypt's matches the referees booked Egypt more readily than their opponents — a card about every 5 fouls for Egypt, versus about every 9 fouls for the opponents.

Egypt 1 card / 5 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 9 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Egypt's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

59 fouls, 12 cards

Expected cards

59 fouls × 0.128 = 7.564

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.12, 0.323]

Source matches

1489377
1489396
1489414
1565178
1576804

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489377	Belgium	15	2
1489396	New Zealand	8	1
1489414	Iran	11	3
1565178	Australia	14	2
1576804	Argentina	11	4

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 7.5638,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.8,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1282
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.1204,
      0.3227
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.2034
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1143,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1282
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1489377",
      "opponent": "Belgium"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 8,
      "matchId": "1489396",
      "opponent": "New Zealand"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489414",
      "opponent": "Iran"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1565178",
      "opponent": "Australia"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 4,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1576804",
      "opponent": "Argentina"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 8.75
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 7.8,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 4.9167
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489377",
    "1489396",
    "1489414",
    "1565178",
    "1576804"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1282,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 12,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.2034,
    "fouls": 59,
    "foulsPerCard": 4.9167
  },
  "teamCode": "Egypt",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON