Colombia Card harshness

Card Harshness

Colombia

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Colombia's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than Colombia — a card about every 9 fouls for opponents, versus about every 9 fouls for Colombia.

Colombia 1 card / 9 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 9 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Colombia's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

70 fouls, 8 cards

Expected cards

70 fouls × 0.115 = 8.078

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.059, 0.21]

Source matches

1489386
1489419
1539008
1567310
1576805

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489386	Uzbekistan	11	1
1489419	Portugal	12	1
1539008	Congo DR	12	2
1567310	Ghana	14	2
1576805	Switzerland	21	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.078,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.6667,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1154
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0591,
      0.2096
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1143
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1176,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1154
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489386",
      "opponent": "Uzbekistan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1489419",
      "opponent": "Portugal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 12,
      "matchId": "1539008",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1567310",
      "opponent": "Ghana"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 21,
      "matchId": "1576805",
      "opponent": "Switzerland"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 8.5
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.6667,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 8.75
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489386",
    "1489419",
    "1539008",
    "1567310",
    "1576805"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1154,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 8,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1143,
    "fouls": 70,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.75
  },
  "teamCode": "Colombia",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON