Canada Card harshness

Card Harshness

Canada

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Canada's matches the referees booked Canada more readily than their opponents — a card about every 7 fouls for Canada, versus about every 7 fouls for the opponents.

Canada 1 card / 7 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 7 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Canada's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

72 fouls, 11 cards

Expected cards

72 fouls × 0.122 = 8.755

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.088, 0.253]

Source matches

1489387
1489408
1539000
1561329
1567824

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489387	Qatar	9	1
1489408	Switzerland	13	2
1539000	Bosnia & Herzegovina	10	2
1561329	South Africa	16	2
1567824	Morocco	24	4

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.7552,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.2222,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1216
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0875,
      0.2532
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1528
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1507,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1216
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1489387",
      "opponent": "Qatar"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489408",
      "opponent": "Switzerland"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 10,
      "matchId": "1539000",
      "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 16,
      "matchId": "1561329",
      "opponent": "South Africa"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 4
      },
      "cards": 4,
      "fouls": 24,
      "matchId": "1567824",
      "opponent": "Morocco"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 6.6364
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.2222,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.5455
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489387",
    "1489408",
    "1539000",
    "1561329",
    "1567824"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1216,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 11,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1528,
    "fouls": 72,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.5455
  },
  "teamCode": "Canada",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON