Brazil Card harshness

Card Harshness

Brazil

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Brazil's matches the referees booked Brazil more readily than their opponents — a card about every 6 fouls for Brazil, versus about every 8 fouls for the opponents.

Brazil 1 card / 6 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 8 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Strength of schedule. The teams Brazil faced were carded less often than the tournament average.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

51 fouls, 8 cards

Expected cards

51 fouls × 0.084 = 4.269

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.082, 0.28]

Source matches

1489371
1489389
1489406
1562344
1568100

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489371	Morocco	16	2
1489389	Haiti	13	1
1489406	Scotland	11	2
1562344	Japan	4	2
1568100	Norway	7	1

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 4.2687,
    "foulsPerCard": 11.9474,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0837
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0817,
      0.2801
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1569
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1228,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.0837
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 16,
      "matchId": "1489371",
      "opponent": "Morocco"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489389",
      "opponent": "Haiti"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 11,
      "matchId": "1489406",
      "opponent": "Scotland"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 4,
      "matchId": "1562344",
      "opponent": "Japan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1568100",
      "opponent": "Norway"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 8.1429
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 11.9474,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 6.375
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489371",
    "1489389",
    "1489406",
    "1562344",
    "1568100"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": "opponents_below_average",
    "material": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.0837,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 8,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1569,
    "fouls": 51,
    "foulsPerCard": 6.375
  },
  "teamCode": "Brazil",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON