Belgium Card harshness

Card Harshness

Belgium

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Belgium's matches the referees booked their opponents more readily than Belgium — a card about every 7 fouls for opponents, versus about every 11 fouls for Belgium.

Belgium 1 card / 11 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 7 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Belgium's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

Fouls / cards

78 fouls, 7 cards

Expected cards

78 fouls × 0.117 = 9.087

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.044, 0.174]

Source matches

1489377
1489395
1489415
1567308
1570715
1581821

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489377	Egypt	15	2
1489395	Iran	7	2
1489415	New Zealand	7	0
1567308	Senegal	22	1
1570715	United States	9	0
1581821	Spain	18	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 9.087,
    "foulsPerCard": 8.5862,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1165
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0442,
      0.1738
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0897
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1429,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1165
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1489377",
      "opponent": "Egypt"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489395",
      "opponent": "Iran"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489415",
      "opponent": "New Zealand"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 22,
      "matchId": "1567308",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1570715",
      "opponent": "USA"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 18,
      "matchId": "1581821",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 7
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 8.5862,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 11.1429
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489377",
    "1489395",
    "1489415",
    "1567308",
    "1570715",
    "1581821"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1165,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 7,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0897,
    "fouls": 78,
    "foulsPerCard": 11.1429
  },
  "teamCode": "Belgium",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON