Belgium Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Belgium

Moderate

What we see

Belgium is shown a card about every 11 fouls. The teams Belgium faced were carded about every 8 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Belgium, they were carded about every 7 fouls. That is close to their own usual rate, so the gap is mostly on Belgium's side.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

76 fouls, 7 cards

Expected cards

76 fouls × 0.13 = 9.85

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.045, 0.178]

Source matches

1489377
1489395
1489415
1567308
1570715
1581821

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489377	Egypt	15	2
1489395	Iran	7	2
1489415	New Zealand	7	0
1567308	Senegal	22	1
1570715	United States	9	0
1581821	Spain	16	2

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 9.8496,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.7143,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1296
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0453,
      0.1781
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0921
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1429,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1296
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1489377",
      "opponent": "Egypt"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489395",
      "opponent": "Iran"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489415",
      "opponent": "New Zealand"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 22,
      "matchId": "1567308",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 9,
      "matchId": "1570715",
      "opponent": "USA"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 16,
      "matchId": "1581821",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 7
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 7.7143,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 10.8571
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489377",
    "1489395",
    "1489415",
    "1567308",
    "1570715",
    "1581821"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1296,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 7,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0921,
    "fouls": 76,
    "foulsPerCard": 10.8571
  },
  "teamCode": "Belgium",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON