Argentina Card Harshness

Card Harshness

Argentina

Limited

What we see

Argentina is shown a card about every 20 fouls. The teams Argentina faced were carded about every 7 fouls.

The other side

When those same opponents played Argentina, they were carded about every 6 fouls. That is less than their own usual rate, so the cards were shifted toward Argentina.

What this does not mean

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls. There are not many matches yet, so the number may still move a lot. Here the team is actually carded less than the teams it faced, not more.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

Fouls / cards

59 fouls, 3 cards

Expected cards

59 fouls × 0.14 = 8.242

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.017, 0.139]

Source matches

1489381
1489399
1489421
1565179
1576804

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489381	Algeria	13	0
1489399	Austria	13	2
1489421	Jordan	7	0
1565179	Cape Verde Islands	13	1
1576804	Egypt	13	0

Build snapshot

wc2026-7082ae433fbe

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 8.2423,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.1579,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1397
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-7082ae433fbe",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "limited",
    "interval": [
      0.0174,
      0.1392
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.0508
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": true,
    "oneSided": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1754,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1397
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489381",
      "opponent": "Algeria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489399",
      "opponent": "Austria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489421",
      "opponent": "Jordan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1565179",
      "opponent": "Cape Verde Islands"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1576804",
      "opponent": "Egypt"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "limited",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible",
      "small_sample",
      "favorable_direction"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 5.7
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 7.1579,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 19.6667
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489381",
    "1489399",
    "1489421",
    "1565179",
    "1576804"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1397,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1181
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 3,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.0508,
    "fouls": 59,
    "foulsPerCard": 19.6667
  },
  "teamCode": "Argentina",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON