Argentina Card harshness

Card Harshness

Argentina

Worth notingMirror comparison — same referee, same games

In Argentina's matches the referees booked Argentina more readily than their opponents — a card about every 7 fouls for Argentina, versus about every 8 fouls for the opponents.

Argentina 1 card / 7 fouls

Opponents 1 card / 8 fouls

Longer bar = more fouls allowed before a booking (treated more leniently)

The gap sits mostly on Argentina's own side, not a redistribution between the teams.

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

How Card Harshness works

The exact numbers

This does not show whether comparable fouls were treated differently. We cannot see how bad each foul was, so a harsher rate can simply mean more bookable fouls.

Fouls / cards

113 fouls, 16 cards

Expected cards

113 fouls × 0.11 = 12.419

Confidence interval (wilson_binomial)

[0.089, 0.218]

Source matches

1489381
1489399
1489421
1565179
1576804
1582681
1586077
1591866

Per-match inputs

Match	Opponent	Fouls	Cards
1489381	Algeria	13	0
1489399	Austria	13	2
1489421	Jordan	7	0
1565179	Cape Verde Islands	13	1
1576804	Egypt	13	0
1582681	Switzerland	14	3
1586077	England	15	3
1591866	Spain	25	7

Build snapshot

wc2026-43c8d1939c51

Artifact data

View JSON

{
  "baseline": {
    "expectedCards": 12.4187,
    "foulsPerCard": 9.1026,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1099
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "confidence": {
    "band": "moderate",
    "interval": [
      0.0891,
      0.2177
    ],
    "method": "wilson_binomial",
    "metric": "cards_per_foul",
    "point": 0.1416
  },
  "investigation": "card_harshness",
  "mirror": {
    "corroborates": false,
    "oneSided": true,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoulVsTeam": 0.1308,
    "opponentsOwnBaselineCardsPerFoul": 0.1099
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489381",
      "opponent": "Algeria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 2
      },
      "cards": 2,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1489399",
      "opponent": "Austria"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 7,
      "matchId": "1489421",
      "opponent": "Jordan"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 1
      },
      "cards": 1,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1565179",
      "opponent": "Cape Verde Islands"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {},
      "cards": 0,
      "fouls": 13,
      "matchId": "1576804",
      "opponent": "Egypt"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 14,
      "matchId": "1582681",
      "opponent": "Switzerland"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "yellow": 3
      },
      "cards": 3,
      "fouls": 15,
      "matchId": "1586077",
      "opponent": "England"
    },
    {
      "cardColors": {
        "red": 1,
        "yellow": 6
      },
      "cards": 7,
      "fouls": 25,
      "matchId": "1591866",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slots": {
    "confidenceBand": "moderate",
    "doesNotMean": [
      "severity_invisible"
    ],
    "otherSide": {
      "mirrorFoulsPerCard": 7.6429
    },
    "whatWeSee": {
      "baselineFoulsPerCard": 9.1026,
      "teamFoulsPerCard": 7.0625
    }
  },
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489381",
    "1489399",
    "1489421",
    "1565179",
    "1576804",
    "1582681",
    "1586077",
    "1591866"
  ],
  "strengthOfSchedule": {
    "direction": null,
    "material": false,
    "opponentsCardsPerFoul": 0.1099,
    "tournamentCardsPerFoul": 0.1186
  },
  "team": {
    "cards": 16,
    "cardsPerFoul": 0.1416,
    "fouls": 113,
    "foulsPerCard": 7.0625
  },
  "teamCode": "Argentina",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}

Download JSON