Finding evidence

Portugal

Compare all teams

Big-moments ledger

Portugal

Outlier flagComposite outlier — a summary of the three stats above

Adding up the big calls, they netted in Portugal's favor — worth a look.

Portugal
Net againstEvenNet for
Net match-swinging calls per match across the field; faded band shows the 95% interval.

3 big calls for Portugal, 1 against, across penalties, red cards and disallowed goals.

These calls are rare, so even a clear gap is a flag worth a look, not a verdict; the components are shown individually above.

Show the receipts

The ledger is the sum of three stats shown individually above, each from a distinct source so nothing is double-counted:

ComponentForAgainst
Penalties (won vs conceded)10
Players sent off (opponent vs own)00
Goals disallowed (opponent's vs own)21
Net ledger31

Build snapshot: wc2026-ea43146ad0dd

MatchOpponentForAgainst
1489404Uzbekistan10
1489419Colombia00
1539003Congo DR00
1567309Croatia21
1576756Spain00
View JSON
{
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-ea43146ad0dd",
  "components": {
    "disallowedGoals": {
      "against": 1,
      "for": 2
    },
    "dismissals": {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0
    },
    "penalties": {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 1
    }
  },
  "firmness": "limited",
  "investigation": "big_moments",
  "ledger": {
    "against": 1,
    "for": 3,
    "interval": [
      -0.9906,
      1.7484
    ],
    "intervalMethod": "poisson_95_difference",
    "net": 2,
    "netPerMatch": 0.4
  },
  "lens": "outlier",
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 1,
      "matchId": "1489404",
      "opponent": "Uzbekistan"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1489419",
      "opponent": "Colombia"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1539003",
      "opponent": "Congo DR"
    },
    {
      "against": 1,
      "for": 2,
      "matchId": "1567309",
      "opponent": "Croatia"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1576756",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489404",
    "1489419",
    "1539003",
    "1567309",
    "1576756"
  ],
  "teamCode": "Portugal",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}
Download JSON