Finding evidence

Paraguay

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Penalties

Paraguay

Outlier flagOutlier comparison

Paraguay conceded more penalties than it was awarded.

Paraguay
Net concededEvenNet won
Net penalties (won − conceded) per match across the field; faded band shows the 95% interval.

0 penalties won (0 scored, 0 per box shot); 1 conceded.

Penalties are rare, and box shots are only a rough proxy for penalty-worthy incidents; VAR-cancelled penalties are counted separately.

Show the receipts

Paraguay won 0 penalties (0 scored) from 17 shots inside the box; the field averaged 0.1543 penalties per team per match.

Build snapshot: wc2026-dc400360208f

MatchNamed teamOutcomeTreatment
1569870Francescoredconceded
View JSON
{
  "baseline": {
    "penalties": 29,
    "perMatch": 0.1543,
    "teamMatches": 188
  },
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-dc400360208f",
  "conceded": {
    "count": 1,
    "perMatch": 0.2
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "namedTeam": "France",
      "outcome": "scored",
      "treatment": "conceded"
    }
  ],
  "firmness": "limited",
  "investigation": "penalties",
  "lens": "outlier",
  "net": {
    "count": -1,
    "interval": [
      -1.1143,
      0.7327
    ],
    "intervalMethod": "poisson_95_difference",
    "perMatch": -0.2
  },
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "conceded": 0,
      "matchId": "1489370",
      "opponent": "USA",
      "won": 0
    },
    {
      "conceded": 0,
      "matchId": "1489411",
      "opponent": "Australia",
      "won": 0
    },
    {
      "conceded": 0,
      "matchId": "1539006",
      "opponent": "Türkiye",
      "won": 0
    },
    {
      "conceded": 0,
      "matchId": "1565176",
      "opponent": "Germany",
      "won": 0
    },
    {
      "conceded": 1,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "France",
      "won": 0
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489370",
    "1489411",
    "1539006",
    "1565176",
    "1569870"
  ],
  "teamCode": "Paraguay",
  "tournament": "wc_2026",
  "won": {
    "boxShots": 17,
    "count": 0,
    "perBoxShot": 0,
    "perMatch": 0,
    "scored": 0
  }
}
Download JSON