Finding evidence

France

Compare all teams

Big-moments ledger

France

Outlier flagComposite outlier — a summary of the three stats above

Adding up the big calls, they netted against France.

France
Net againstEvenNet for
Net match-swinging calls per match across the field; faded band shows the 95% interval.

2 big calls for France, 3 against, across penalties, red cards and disallowed goals.

These calls are rare, so even a clear gap is a flag worth a look, not a verdict; the components are shown individually above.

Show the receipts

The ledger is the sum of three stats shown individually above, each from a distinct source so nothing is double-counted:

ComponentForAgainst
Penalties (won vs conceded)23
Players sent off (opponent vs own)00
Goals disallowed (opponent's vs own)00
Net ledger23

Build snapshot: wc2026-43c8d1939c51

MatchOpponentForAgainst
1489383Senegal00
1489416Norway01
1539017Iraq00
1565177Sweden00
1569870Paraguay10
1578539Morocco10
1585131Spain01
1591865England01
View JSON
{
  "buildSnapshotId": "wc2026-43c8d1939c51",
  "components": {
    "disallowedGoals": {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0
    },
    "dismissals": {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0
    },
    "penalties": {
      "against": 3,
      "for": 2
    }
  },
  "firmness": "limited",
  "investigation": "big_moments",
  "ledger": {
    "against": 3,
    "for": 2,
    "interval": [
      -1.0656,
      0.8258
    ],
    "intervalMethod": "poisson_95_difference",
    "net": -1,
    "netPerMatch": -0.125
  },
  "lens": "outlier",
  "perMatch": [
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1489383",
      "opponent": "Senegal"
    },
    {
      "against": 1,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1489416",
      "opponent": "Norway"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1539017",
      "opponent": "Iraq"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1565177",
      "opponent": "Sweden"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 1,
      "matchId": "1569870",
      "opponent": "Paraguay"
    },
    {
      "against": 0,
      "for": 1,
      "matchId": "1578539",
      "opponent": "Morocco"
    },
    {
      "against": 1,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1585131",
      "opponent": "Spain"
    },
    {
      "against": 1,
      "for": 0,
      "matchId": "1591865",
      "opponent": "England"
    }
  ],
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "sourceMatches": [
    "1489383",
    "1489416",
    "1539017",
    "1565177",
    "1569870",
    "1578539",
    "1585131",
    "1591865"
  ],
  "teamCode": "France",
  "tournament": "wc_2026"
}
Download JSON